When Moodys lowered India’s ratings, I was thinking about few facts. India has never defaulted. Even in 1991, Indian economy was on the brinks of default risk, but it didn’t. India external debt is very comfortable vis a vis other developing nations.
Major reason for Moody’s downgrading India’s ratings was pessimism on ability of government to respond with required policy reforms.
I think today’s S&P’s retention of India’s sovereign credit rating at BBB with stable outlook is optimism emanating from few facts.
Stable government at centre with majority in parliament has ability to continue with reforms. Government is responding to the crisis although with low pace. Further measures and reforms can be anticipated in coming months.
India has never been so comfortable on current account. This year, India may witness very comfortable current account on account of lower oil prices.
Only major risk is on fiscal front. I don’t think any major developing nation is without this risk in 2020. S&P’s has observed 10% increase in net government debt to 80%.
S&P’s optimism about Indian Economy resonated with Fitch forecast which shows Indian economy will bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5% next year.